How Anambra May Vote

Chuks Okocha previews the voting pattern in
Saturday’s governorship election in Anambra
State, looking at the numerical strength of the
key zones, the political parties’ campaign
strategies, as well as the standing of the
individual candidates in the election
After months of intrigues and high-wired
politics, the frenzy that had so far
characterised the first phase of the Anambra
State governorship election would simmer this
Saturday when the electorate in the state
would go to the poll to elect a governor of their
choice. The battle will, of course, shift
afterwards to the Election Petition Tribunal as
the second phase and subsequently, to the
different stages of the court, being the third
phase of the legal cum electoral battle in
Anambra.
As the first phase of the exercise runs to a
close this weekend, it is expected that the
political parties would have begun to perfect
their strategies with a degree of certainties,
while the bookmakers would also be putting
some finishing touches to their projections, in
lieu of their understanding of the situation with
regards to the parties and their candidates.
For instance, there used to be a perception
that if the election had taken place a month or
two earlier, it would have been a walkover for
the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).
Although his performance in office has
suddenly become a subject of debate,
Governor Peter Obi and APGA, whose
candidate he literally handpicked, had enjoyed
some positive perception that eluded other
political parties which at that material time
were battling to give shape to their
campaigns.
The power of incumbency and its ancillary
benefits which the APGA government had
availed various governmental and non-
governmental intitutions as well as individual
Anambrarians, were and still a strong weapon
in the hands of the APGA leadership in driving
home its quest for continuity. Several projects
worth billions of naira were daily being
unveiled at every campaign to stand APGA
strong on its feet.
Besides, the emergence of its candidate from
Anambra North, whose case for equity in the
geo-political balancing in the state,
commands immense value to the APGA
project. What more, APGA’s supposed major
opponent in the election, Dr. Chris Ngige of the
All Progressives Congress (APC), has had to
do a major battle following the deportation of
some Anambra indigenes by the APC-led
government in Lagos State, an action that
Ngige, although an irredentist Ndigbo, was
believed to have tacitly supported for sake of
his ambition.
Again, the thesis and the perception of APGA
as purely an Igbo platform had ignited an age
long ethnic survivalism and rivalry in which the
Igbo and the Yoruba view each other as
enemies. APC being a party led by the
westerners was seen as a minus for Ngige and
a plus for Obiano, the APGA candidate.
Unfortunately, Obiano has not been able to
shake off the cocoon of godfathersim as no
major pronouncement was recorded against
his name in an electioneering that had taken
the APGA to practically everywhere in the
state. His performance at the governorship
debate, at which many people had thought he
would dust the other candidates as a
consummate banker, did not quite meet the
expectations of the people.
The drama between him and the Labour Party
candidate, Chief Ifeanyi Ubah, where the latter
reportedly snatched and exposed a piece of
jottings which the former took to the debate
went viral on the internet, raising curiosity
about the issue of competence.
The adoration tragedy, penultimate week, has
also robbed off badly on APGA. Its damage
control has not undone its alleged complicity
in the tragedy. In addition to this was that
some politicians who though worked for Obi
are said not to be so willing to work for
Obiano, whom they hardly know. If Obi is
good, it is no guarantee that Obiano would be
good too, they allegedly reckon. Thus, APGA’s
domineering influence in the polity has been
whittled down considerably by other
opposition parties and the dynamism of
developments.
In the APC camp, the low turn which heralded
Ngige’s campaign in the past months has
changed drastically. The man has bounced
back somewhat, sweeping through the length
and breadth of the state like a hurricane. “I
have done it before; I can do it even better,”
has been the central theme of Ngige’s
message. He has stoutly defended his
membership of the APC on matters of principle
which he claimed was lacking in most
politicians. “I am not a bread and butter
politician and I don’t need to be in the ruling
party to survive. Service to the people is the
utmost.”
The APC candidate has also succeeded in
forcing the people to compare what it was
while he was briefly governor of the state and
what it is today. He is a front runner, no doubt.
He is believed to have the benevolent spirit
fighting for him to the extent that market
women are said to be contributing money to
assist his campaigns. He is about the most
popular face on the billboards and also the
centre of all the missiles being served by the
APGA media machine.
Ironically, it appears the more the man is
heckled, the more popular he becomes. He
remains one of the very few politicians who do
not need to hire a crowd for an impressionable
outing. But whether or not this will translate to
some quantum votes for him will be seen on
Saturday, the election day.
Enters Tony Nwoye, the game changer,
perhaps! A young man whose late entry, no
thanks to a protracted legal battle, has
changed the face of the contest is Nwoye. Like
Obiano, Nwoye is from the North and is seen
by many as the real face of the people of
Omambala’s quest for governorship of the
state. Indications are strong that he may have
taken over the zone’s support base from
Obiano. Backed by Arthur Eze, Emeka Offor
and Cletus Ibeto – all titans, the PDP
candidate is just another personality to watch
out for in Saturday’s election.
He boasts a network of youths round the state
who are ready to die for him and his eventual
entry into the race is believed to have sent the
APGA back to the drawing board. Although
many worry about his experience and maturity
to govern a state like Anambra, that is
ultimately a decision in the hands of the
Anambra people and would be put to test this
Saturday.
Ubah has obviously had one of the most
impressive campaigns and has made vital
contacts across all the zones. He took the turf
by storm as his campaign was typified by
glitz. Unfortunately, he has not been quite
visible in these last few days, in what many
thought was not unconnected with the issue of
funding. While there is a Labour Party
government in Ondo State led by Dr. Olusegun
Mimiko, Ubah said during one of his interviews
that he had not received any money from the
government, describing himself as an orphan
who has been left to tend to himself, unlike the
other candidates.
Lately, he is believed to be broke to the extent
that he once allegedly approached the Asset
Management Company of Nigeria (AMCON) for
a loan to prosecute the rest of his campaign.
There is also the story doing the rounds that
he now does his publicity on personal
cognizance, an indication that his campaign
has suffered serious cash crunch. But he is
believed to have some kind of following to
leverage, at least, for participation purposes.
The candidate of the Progressive Peoples
Alliance (PPA), Mr. Godwin Ezeemo, has not
made as much impact in the campaigns. A
former member of the APC who quit in the
aftermath of the governorship primaries in the
party, Ezeemo is believed to have a good
manifesto as well as an idea of what it takes
to run a state.
Chairman of the Orient Group, there is the
general feeling that Ezeemo has not really had
a good showing in the campaigns and that his
rating in the overall has not been impressive.
But there cannot be an absolute submission in
order not to undermine him hence the
Saturday election will situate everyone as they
so stand in the equation.
However, everything being equal and given a
free and fair election, the battle will be won
and lost through some of the following voting
patterns as explained by the voting strength
and popularity of each candidate in his area.
The Omambala region with four local
government areas of Oyi, Aghamelum,
Anambra East and West, with a total voting
capacity of about 243,000, may be shared
between the PDP and APGA, even though
observers fear that the PDP might have an
upper hand.
The APC will also garner some votes from the
same area, especially from Anambra West,
where Ngige’s running mate is said to be lord,
having been a two-time member of the House
of Representatives and local government
chairman.
The remaining three local government areas of
Onitsha South and North as well as Ogbaru all
in the same Anambra North with the voting
capacity of 379,000 may be free for all with the
APC expected to lead and followed by APGA
and the PDP. The reason for APC’s lead is
anchored on the heavy presence of the Idemili
and other people of the Anambra Central,
including the non-indigenes from Enugu and
Ebonyi States who are also believed not to be
happy with the deportation of their kits and kin
in Onitsha by the APGA-led government of Obi
in 2010.
Anambra Central where Ngige is a serving
Senator and where Obi as well as Victor Umeh
come from, may have been conceded to Ngige
outright. His Idemili South and especially
North with the highest voting strength in the
state, where he is also a political prince will be
hundred per cent for him. The voting strength
from the two local government areas is about
258,000.
Anaocha is the birthplace of Obi with the
voting capacity of 76,000; it will surely go the
way of APGA. Thus, Njikoka, Dunukofia, Awka
North and South may be shared amongst the
candidates with Ngige likely to command
emphatic victory in Dunukofia and Awka South
and Awka North. The voting Strength of the
three local governments put together is
232,000.
The battle will rage like fire in Anambra South.
Nnewi North is the home town of Ubah and he
commands a good followership. But
traditionally and in a fit of irony, the APC
candidate has always won the place. The
voting capacity for Nnewi North and South is
169,000. The battle would be same in Nnewi
South where the influence of Mr. Nicholas
Ukachukwu, a governorship hopeful in the PDP
will be felt. Ukachukwu is believed to have
given his support to Nwoye in the aftermath of
the Supreme Court ruling on the crisis that
trailed the choice of candidate.
Also instructive is the fact that the Cletus Ibeto
influence would be a factor to count for the
PDP in Nnewi North while in Ekwusigo, the
Emeka Offor factor would add some great
value. Yet, the APGA and the APC are all on the
grounds too.
Ihiala with a capacity of 113,000 votes is likely
to fall for APGA while in the old Aguata
comprising Aguta, Orumba North and Orumba
South, victory will be too close to call, even
though APGA won here in 2010, alliances have
since changed, factoring in strong links for the
APC. Voting capacity for the old Aguta is about
208,000.
In the final analysis, while the election looks
good, somewhat, for the APC and Ngige, given
these calculations, some of which are subject
to change in the event of any dramatic twist in
the equation; Nwoye of the PDP follows closely
and could cash-in on any opportunity in the
event that there is an upset. The APGA and
Obiano will no doubt give a good fight since a
lot is at stake, but they would be battling
many odds, while Ezeemo may as well be a
spectator in his own game.
The above submission is contingent on the
subsisting equation as it were. And knowing
that 24 hours is a long time in politics, it is
therefore safe to presume that these
calculations remain fluid and may be subject
to several unforeseen changes as the
countdown to Saturday continues.